The Arab Tipping Point (World Politics Review Special Reports)

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As a consequence, models suggest a longer dry season after deforestation.

Human activity is causing irreparable harm to the life on this world.

In recent decades, new forcing factors have impinged on the hydrological cycle: climate change and widespread use of fire to eliminate felled trees and clear weedy vegetation. Widespread use of fire leads to drying of surrounding forest and greater vulnerability to fire in the subsequent year. The severity of the droughts of , and could well represent the first flickers of this ecological tipping point.

These events, together with the severe floods of , and over SW Amazonia , suggest that the whole system is oscillating. For the last two decades the dry season over the southern and eastern Amazon has been increasing. Large scale factors such as warmer sea surface temperatures over the tropical North Atlantic also seem to be associated with the changes on land. At the Paris Conference of the Parties, Brazil committed to 12 million ha of reforestation by Much or most of this reforestation should be in southern and eastern Amazonia.

Navy at a Tipping Point -

The hydrological cycle of the Amazon is fundamental to human well-being in Brazil and adjacent South America. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license , which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.

NOTE: We only request your email address so that the person you are recommending the page to knows that you wanted them to see it, and that it is not junk mail. We do not capture any email address. By Thomas E. Lovejoy , Carlos Nobre. Science Advances 21 Feb : eaat Table of Contents. All rights reserved. Thomas E. Email: tlovejoy unfoundation. Download high-res image Open in new tab Download Powerpoint. Salati , A. Matsui , J.

He went on to urge Governments and corporations to make a choice whether to pursue profits over the basic human rights of children. Calling for global unity for global crisis, he denounced the irresponsible stewardship of humankind. All lands float in the ocean like canoes. The international community has come to this point in time with a selfishness that is unparalleled. No one is condemning anything; rather it is a matter of preparing humans for a new life, she said, pointing out that ice factories have disappeared because people make ice at home.

His country has integrated the Pathway and the Sustainable Development Goals into its development strategy, and allocated dedicated funds for implementation. SOLBERG said that there is a clear link between climate change and security, noting that melting glaciers and hurricanes are devastating economies. In a keynote address, Mr. FAURE said that he is not satisfied with the slow pace of progress in implementing the Samoa Pathway, stressing the need to create more durable partnerships.

Protecting small island developing States is also a commitment to protecting the environment and the planet. AHMAD recognized the immense challenges these States are facing, stressing the need to go beyond major donors pledging funds. For small island developing States, access to financing is a major hurdle, he said, noting that next year his Government will host a special meeting on their accessibility to climate financing.

For its part, the World Bank has added Fiji to the list of beneficiaries of such financing. WEVER-CROES said her State faces unique challenges, as it has a small population, land mass and economy of scale; limited capacity; and is dependent on imports and vulnerable to external shocks. To overcome these challenges, strong institutions are critical. Two regional conferences in Australia and Jamaica next year will focus on small island developing States and these technical issues.

At the same time, building resilience requires investments that go beyond crisis management. Following the fireside chat, Member States exchanged their views on the progress made and the challenges remaining. He said the challenges bedevilling small island developing States are beyond their capacity to address, stressing the need for partnerships while deploring the lack of political will of donor countries.

Landlocked developing countries will have their midterm review in December. In the future, this partnership will focus on cooperation in trade, investment and tourism and will also include funding for infrastructure and transportation projects.

What is phishing?

Indonesia, he reaffirmed, will stand side by side with small island developing States in supporting the Samoa Pathway. He urged Member States to support primary health care and universal health coverage in small island developing States. Public infrastructure, however, has yet to be rebuilt.

The main secondary school just reopened. The territories are making a paradigm shift to sustainable development, but the cost of obtaining financing is high as the criteria set by donor communities is so rigid. The territories continue to be denied access to the Green Climate Fund. It is also vital to improve data monitoring and collection at all levels. In her keynote address, Ms. Very often these discussions are influenced by disaster, but the world forgets the islands when new headlines crop up.

The fall of Qusair has serious strategic implications for the ongoing conflict in Syria. Most immediately, it closes off a major route that opposition fighters use to infiltrate and send weapons to the province of Homs—a strategic gateway to the rest of Syria—from nearby northern Lebanon. The rebels will face an uphill struggle to dislodge pro-regime garrisons left in the region around Qusair and rebuild a secure supply and staging area there.

Malcolm Gladwell - The Tipping Point Audiobook

But the real takeaway is that the regime is increasingly well positioned to capitalize on its strengths and secure itself for the long term. Its ability to survive has been grossly underestimated from the outset. The battle for Qusair was just one part of an ongoing strategic campaign in which the Syrian army has made significant gains. Since early April the army has encircled rebel-held areas to the east and southwest of Damascus, pushed the rebels further away from the heart of the capital itself, and broken through rebel lines to reinforce and resupply besieged garrisons in Wadi Deif near Idlib and around Aleppo.

It has also retaken much of the ground recently lost to the rebels in southern Syria around the city of Deraa, in the Golan area, and along the border with Jordan and is fighting for full control of the international highway to Jordan. The army is trying to encircle the northern and southern sides of Aleppo, its strategic prize, in a bid to cut off rebel strongholds prior to taking full control of the city. Loyalist forces are not able to achieve total military victory. The army in particular suffers a severe manpower shortage and will become dangerously overstretched and once again vulnerable if it seeks to regain too much lost territory.

The battle for Aleppo alone could bog it down for months of costly urban combat. But the regime has shown very considerable resilience and ability to learn and adapt. It remains the stronger party, in terms not only of its ability to field well-trained, well-armed, and determined fighters, but also of its organization, coordination, and, consequently, better access to and use of intelligence.

The war is far from over for the rebels. They could still fight the regime to a draw. But although they claim ,—, men under arms—the lower estimate is more authoritative—they are on the strategic defensive. The regime is a unitary actor politically and has a cohesive military command and control structure. The rebels remain badly fragmented.

They face ongoing problems of internal cohesion, poor command and control, and repeated disruptions in the supply of arms and ammunition from their principal supporters in the Gulf. Above all, the rebels lack strategically savvy political leadership. At this crucial moment, the main opposition umbrella framework, the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, is on the verge of breaking up over endemic internal squabbles. And European Union diplomats privately acknowledge that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will remain in office under any predictable scenario.

That was not always the outlook. Even the most sober rebel sources anticipated that the much-touted battle for Damascus would get started by May The tables have clearly turned since then. The regime might prove unable to extend or retain all its gains indefinitely. But the opposition cannot continue to meet a resourceful regime with revolutionary hubris. It needs to reassess how the regime has managed to survive a large-scale armed rebellion, the loss of territory and main sources of revenue, and punishing economic sanctions—and still come out fighting.

Many explain the staying power of the regime by pointing to the massive military and financial assistance it has received from Russia and Iran, and more recently from Hezbollah. It is also believed to have relied heavily on advisers sent by its allies. But it is not just outside assistance that matters; it is what the regime has done with it.

Syria’s Strategic Balance at a Tipping Point

And the Assad clan has proven adept at making effective use of material support and at internalizing advice and applying it. The Assad regime has made egregious political and military mistakes at its own expense over the past two years, but it has also shown that it can think strategically, husband its military assets, and bide its time. The Syrian opposition, which has not displayed the same resources, ignores this crucial fact at its peril. The regime has benefited from several other advantages. First and foremost, it needs only to survive.

This is a huge challenge, but it nonetheless simplifies things for the regime. In the meantime, the opposition must prove its ability to govern liberated areas effectively and ensure food and water supply, medical care, and shelter to retain its popular base and legitimacy. So far it has failed to achieve either requirement. In its fight for survival, the regime is behaving more like a militia than a state. It is not attempting to regain domestic and international political legitimacy or to ensure societal compliance with state policies.

Instead, it is transforming the economic calculations of fighting a protracted internal war by disregarding the costly business of ruling.

One of its early responses to the imposition of economic sanctions by the Friends of Syria well over a year ago was to drastically increase its savings by slashing public investment, which represented